Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
